Chapter 52: Process of Elimination

Faced with Miao Cheng's question, Zhou Yi smiled and replied, "Just a guess."

"A guess?" Miao Cheng asked in surprise.

Zhou Yi said, "How should I put it? I feel that so-called deduction is actually making informed, logical guesses based on clues."

"For example, their daughter is eight years old this year, which means Zhang Hui gave birth to her at thirty-eight. That is unquestionably an advanced maternal age, and giving birth comes with massive risks. The fact that Zhang Hui was willing to take that risk shows she had genuine feelings for Xu Jiaguang. In a blended family that's just scraping by together, that's very difficult to achieve."

"Furthermore, Xu Jiaguang has a timid personality. Unless his ex-wife was excessively overbearing and pushed him past his breaking point, it's unlikely such a person would initiate a divorce. But if that were the case, how could he turn around and get with Zhang Hui, who is also strong-willed? Therefore, the highest probability is that he was caught having an affair and forced into a divorce, or Zhang Hui pressured him into it."

"Finally, judging by their family structure, neither party got custody of the child during the divorce. Either they both viewed the child as a burden, or they couldn't get custody due to an affair. I suspect it's a combination of both."

Zhou Yi counted on his fingers as he spoke, "A second marriage, true love, and leaving the child behind. That's why I think the possibility of them having an affair and then remarrying is the highest."

Miao Cheng couldn't help saying to Qiao Jiali, "Your Municipal Bureau is truly brimming with talent. To be able to deduce such accurate information from such ordinary clues is simply remarkable."

Qiao Jiali patted Zhou Yi's shoulder with satisfaction, "Naturally. Do you think anyone can just waltz into our Major Case Unit?"

Zhou Yi waved his hands repeatedly, "Not at all, not at all. I just got lucky and happened to guess right. It's mainly because you officers did such thorough groundwork and investigated everything that needed looking into; otherwise, even if I guessed, I wouldn't know if I was right or wrong."

Miao Cheng asked, "Then, Officer Zhou, do you have any guidance regarding this missing person case?"

Zhou Yi waved his hands in a flustered and respectful manner, "I'm just a newcomer, how could I dare offer guidance? But Zhang Hui's disappearance is indeed very suspicious."

"Disappearances generally boil down to two types: voluntary and involuntary."

"If it's a voluntary disappearance, it's either leaving home in a huff after a family dispute, running away with someone due to an affair, or hiding out of fear because they're mixed up in something."

"From what you've already gathered, the first possibility is unlikely. Even if Xu Jiaguang is lying, their daughter and the neighbors couldn't possibly be completely unaware."

"As for an affair, it can't be ruled out yet, but it wouldn't be hard to check. However, as Officer Miao said, leaving behind all documents and valuables makes this possibility extremely low."

"As for hiding because of a crime, I think the probability is even smaller. If it were a major criminal offense, the public security system would definitely have issued a cooperative investigation notice. Zhang Hui doesn't work in finance, so she wouldn't have had the opportunity to commit economic crimes."

Zhou Yi's words caused Miao Cheng to nod repeatedly.

"Officer Zhou, following your logic, could Zhang Hui's disappearance only be involuntary?"

Instead of answering directly, Zhou Yi said, "Actually, our approach to investigating a case is very similar to multiple-choice questions: you list the possibilities one by one and eliminate them one by one. What's left at the end is naturally the correct answer."

This is actually the fundamental logic one must consider when starting an investigation: first determine the nature of the case, then determine the motive, and finally determine the direction of the investigation.

The reason many cases remain unsolved for a long time is precisely because the initial direction was skewed.

A miss of a millimeter leads to an error of a thousand miles.

The reason the March 16th case was solved within twenty-four hours wasn't because Zhou Yi was some kind of genius. He was just an ordinary, seasoned criminal investigator—not Sherlock Holmes, not Conan.

The real key was actually the case file he had read in the archives room back then.

Even though the case hadn't been solved, the information in the file was the crucial tool that helped him quickly eliminate the wrong options.

This was Zhou Yi's greatest advantage over everyone else.

Normally, when the police investigate cases, they are guessing. If there are clues, they guess based on clues; if there are no clues, they guess based on possibilities. Then, through inquiries, visits, and investigations, they eliminate the incorrect guesses and narrow down the investigative direction.

Although the method is clumsy, it is also very realistic.

"Zhou Yi, did Captain Wu tell you that line?" Qiao Jiali asked in surprise.

"Captain Wu?" Zhou Yi was stunned.

"Captain Wu said the exact same words to us. If Captain Wu didn't tell you this, the two of you are truly cut from the same cloth."

Miao Cheng, standing nearby, laughed heartily and said, "That must be what they call 'great minds think alike.'"

Qiao Jiali teased, "Zhou Yi, did Captain Wu recruit you just so you could succeed him?"

"Sister Qiao, please don't make fun of me. Brother Yan is Captain Wu's true direct disciple. Besides, there's Brother Biao and you, how could it ever be my turn?"

"Officer Zhou, I think what you said makes a lot of sense. Zhang Hui's disappearance indeed has many suspicious points," Miao Cheng said.

"But our difficulty lies in not having enough evidence to officially open a case."

"How about this? I'll report it to my superiors and transfer this case to your Municipal Bureau, what do you think?"

"If this Xu Jiaguang keeps walking around holding protest signs everywhere, it will be extremely detrimental to the public image of the Baicheng Public Security Bureau among the masses. If the higher-ups blame us for it later, I really wouldn't be able to defend myself."

Miao Cheng smiled helplessly while looking at Zhou Yi with hopeful eyes.

"This..."

Zhou Yi knew that while internal transfers had regulations, applying for a collaborative investigation was a very simple matter.

What he had been worried about earlier was the attitude of the local police station, fearing that reaching too far would affect internal unity.

Now that the other party was proactively offering this, it was naturally for the best.

However... as a "newcomer," he still had to put on a show.

"Sister Qiao, what do you think? Should we report this to Captain Wu?"

Qiao Jiali waved a hand dismissively and said, "Why ask him? It's your case, you decide. Consider it a welcome gift from the Third Brigade."

Zhou Yi couldn't whether to laugh or cry internally—who gives a case as a welcome gift?

"Officer Miao, since that's the case, I'll take this case. We need to give the family closure sooner rather than later to prevent the situation from escalating. As for the paperwork..."

Before Zhou Yi could finish, Miao Cheng immediately chimed in, "Don't you worry about the paperwork, I'll handle it."

Honestly, Miao Cheng was genuinely grateful to Zhou Yi in this matter.

When he heard Zhou Yi say that Xu Jiaguang had gone out onto the streets holding placards, he knew instantly that they were in trouble, because the matter had turned into a hot potato.

He also felt that Zhang Hui's disappearance was highly abnormal, but their station truly had limited capabilities, meaning the case would either blow up in their faces or eventually fade into oblivion.

Therefore, Zhou Yi's willingness to take this hot potato off his hands was truly doing him a massive favor.

Moreover, this was the Municipal Bureau's Major Case Unit! If they somehow managed to crack a major case down the line, he might even be able to share a bit of the credit.

"Officer Zhou, do you think we should have Xu Jiaguang come in so you can question him?" Miao Cheng asked eagerly.

Zhou Yi smiled apologetically and said, "No need. Actually, I've already asked him to come to the Municipal Bureau to see me at three o'clock this afternoon."

"What?" Miao Cheng and Qiao Jiali were both shocked.